The number one culprit behind climate change is fossil fuels. And this week, nearly 200 countries made a first-ever deal to start cutting down on them, in what could be a gamechanger for the planet’s health.
The agreement, struck at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai after a fortnight of fierce negotiations, “basically signals the end of the fossil fuel era”, said chief climate risk strategist Soenke Kreft of the United Nations University - Institute for Environmental and Human Security.
Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – account for more than 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.
With emissions continuing to rise, scientists believe the world may cross the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit – as called for in the Paris Agreement – in seven years.
Breaching that threshold could lead to extreme weather patterns such as longer heatwaves and more intense storms.
Already, 2023 has been confirmed as the hottest year on record, due to a combination of global warming and the El Nino effect.
Thousands have died this year due to extreme heat, wildfires, storms and floods linked to climate change.
Emissions need to be reduced by 45 per cent by 2030, observers stress, if we want to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis.
“As things currently stand, we're going to increase them by almost 10 per cent. So we're not on course,” said Mr Tom Burke, co-founder and chairman of climate change think-tank E3G. “We really do have to do a lot more if we're going to stay below 1.5 (degrees Celsius).”
And that means taking “giant leaps” instead of baby steps to accelerate the transition towards clean energy, he added.
While hailed by many global leaders as a step forward, the deal lacks fixed timelines and allows for plenty of interpretive wiggle room, experts said.
“A transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system, which is the precise wording there, differs a lot from the maximum claim of a fossil fuel phase out,” said Professor Frank Jotzo, head of energy at the Australian National University's Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions.
“The emphasis on national circumstances and on equity leaves it up to each individual nation, to each individual government, to determine to what extent they will keep relying on fossil fuels in that transition.”
There was a clear hesitancy to mention a “phase down” or “phase out” of fossil fuels, said Ms Nneka Chike-Obi, head of Asia-Pacific ESG research and ratings at Sustainable Fitch.
“There are still a number of emerging economies, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, that are very concerned that a rapid transition away from fossil fuels would harm their economic development,” she said.
“I think it was worded in a way that both sides can feel that they've come away with a bit of a victory.”
The text also talks about accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including the likes of carbon capture and utilisation and storage - the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide before it can be released into the atmosphere.
“We know that these are unproven technologies and if we continue to bank on these, then we are actually providing a free pass to the fossil fuel industry that wants to portray as if carbon capture and utilisation and storage technologies are going to solve the problem,” said Mr Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International.
“These technologies may allow the fossil fuel industry to prolong the use of fossil fuels and continue with business as usual.”
While the deal recognises that support is needed by developing countries - which are most vulnerable to the impacts of rapid climate change - it stops short of pointing out that rich countries have a responsibility to provide, said Mr Singh.
“The needs are now running into trillions (of dollars) if you really want the transition to happen, and also (for) supporting countries in the Global South who are facing climate emergencies.”
At the climate meeting in the United Arab Emirates, an ambitious new “loss and damage” fund was also formalised, to compensate vulnerable countries suffering the irreversible impacts of climate change.
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